Kentucky Derby: What Does the 151st Run for the Roses Have in Store?

14th May 2025

In US horse racing, all roads lead to Louisville in early May. The Kentucky Derby is one of those horse racing events that transcends the sport itself. Perhaps only the Melbourne Cup is comparable as a horse race that spills over culturally into events around a major city. It’s party time across the city of Louisville, and you can explore so many brilliant music and arts events in the lead-up to the big race.

Nonetheless, all eyes will be on Churchill Downs for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, which will take place on Saturday 3^rd, May. The race is set to go off around 7 pm local time. But what specific narratives does the 2025 Kentucky Derby have in the lead-up to the Run for the Roses? Let’s dive in with some talking points:

A Questionable Favourite

Plus ça change. Journalism is the current market leader in the Kentucky Derby race betting, and, on paper, the horse has every right to be there. He’s unbeaten, and he won one of the major indicator races for Kentucky Derby success – the Santa Anita Derby. The downside is that the horse has only had three major races, all of which featured small fields of five runners. That’s not completely abnormal for a Kentucky Derby candidate, yet it does raise the question of how Journalism will handle the bigger field and the tougher opposition.

A Japanese Winner?

There’s been talk of a Japanese-trained winner of the Kentucky Derby for several years now, but they have always come up short. Last year, the Japanese contingent had two runners, finishing 3^rd and 5^th, so there is hope that Luxor Café can go one better this time around. The horse is the progeny of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, so there’s no doubting his genetics. Like Journalism, the question is how the horse – undeniably exciting – takes to this big step up in class. It’ll be big news in Japan if he can do it.

A Hero’s Welcome?

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be the first in three years for the legendary trainer and six-time winner Bob Baffert. He received a three-year suspension for medical violations, but he made his return to action at Churchill Downs in December of last year. He has two runners in the mix, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, both of whom are interesting candidates without being betting market leaders. It’ll be interesting to see what the crowd’s reaction to Baffert is, especially if he pulls yet another win out of the bag.

Another Longshot Triumph?

The Kentucky Derby has seen winners with odds of 80/1 in recent years, and it has not, in fact, been won by a starting favourite since 2018. There are numerous names up and down the race card that could easily make a run for glory. Consider looking at interesting runners like Tiztastic, who won the Louisianna Derby, and perhaps the most intriguing horse of all is the 30/1 Admire Daytona. The horse will be ridden by Christophe Lemaire, a French jockey who has won just about everything going across Europe, Asia, and Australia. Definitely one to keep an eye on.